THORChain RUNE OI Falls 11.7% as Binance Holds 28.2% Share

THORChain RUNE open interest is moving in the wrong direction for an OI-surge setup: aggregate positions stand at $24.3M, down 11.7% over 24 hours, while the token trades at $0.7534 in the derivatives snapshot. The latest backdrop is renewed scrutiny of THORChain’s possible role in moving funds connected to the Bitget hack.

Concentration is high, but positioning is shrinking

The open interest breakdown shows Binance as the largest venue with $6.9M, or 28.2% of the total, after a 14.8% daily decline. Bybit follows with $4.3M and 17.9% share, down 11.0%. Together, those two venues hold 46.0% of tracked positions, making their deleveraging the central explanation for the market-wide contraction.

Bitget carries $1.8M, equal to 7.3%, and its open interest is down 6.9% over 24 hours. However, its shorter-term reading is different: OI rose 1.4% over four hours. Gate shows a similar split, with $797.3K and 3.3% share, down 6.1% daily but up 1.9% over four hours. The contrast suggests that some smaller venues are rebuilding exposure, but not yet at a scale capable of offsetting reductions at Binance and Bybit.

Funding is positive, not uniformly overheated

The funding rate structure is broadly positive, but the venue gap matters. Binance, Bybit, Bitget and Gate each show 0.010%, while Coinbase is much higher at 0.0981%. CoinEx is at 0.004149%, and Hyperliquid is lower at 0.00125%. This is not a synchronized funding spike across the market; it is a mostly modest positive carry with one conspicuous outlier.

That distinction weakens the case for a clean, market-wide long squeeze immediately ahead. Traders are paying to hold longs at several major venues, yet the aggregate OI decline says leverage is being removed rather than aggressively added. Coinbase’s elevated rate could indicate a more crowded local long book, but its venue share is only 0.04% in the OI summary, so it has limited influence on the total positioning picture.

Liquidations confirm a long-heavy unwind

The liquidation windows are decisively skewed toward longs. In the latest 24-hour period, total liquidations reached $87.5K: $74.4K from longs versus $13.1K from shorts. The 12-hour window tells the same story, with $42.5K in long liquidations against $1.5K in shorts. In the most recent four hours, $773.8 of long positions were closed out and no short liquidation was recorded.

Positioning data adds an important contradiction. The account-level long share is 58.2%, and Binance’s account split is even more bullish at 67.3% long. But the active taker reading is 86.9% long. In other words, accounts are moderately long while aggressive trades are overwhelmingly buying. That may represent dip buying into the OI decline, but without a corresponding rise in total OI, the buying has not yet translated into durable leverage expansion.

Verdict

RUNE’s immediate signal is defensive rather than an OI surge: the key reference price is $0.7534 and the key positioning level is $24.3M. A bullish reversal would require price to hold or reclaim $0.7534 while OI expands above $24.3M; otherwise, the combination of falling OI, 74.4K in long liquidations and a 58.2% account-long base favors continued long cleanup. This view is invalidated if price breaks higher while OI rises above $24.3M and the long-liquidation imbalance reverses toward shorts.

Data as of 06:12 Beijing time on Sep 30, covering Binance, OKX, Bybit and other major venues.