Solana: $5.14B Open Interest Meets a -9.96% Annualized Basis
Solana derivatives are flashing a clear backwardation signal: spot is at $109.83 while the futures basis is -0.0273%, equivalent to -9.9638% annualized. At the same time, aggregate open interest is $5.14B and has increased 4.25% over 24 hours. That combination matters because leverage is building while contracts trade at a discount to spot, a structure more consistent with defensive hedging and crowded downside protection than with confident bullish positioning.
Market coverage is also discussing Solana’s planned performance upgrades and the possibility of broader wallet support, but those themes have not yet erased the derivatives market’s negative carry.
OI is growing unevenly
The exchange breakdown shows that new risk is concentrated rather than evenly distributed. Binance holds $932.8M, or 18.2% of tracked open interest, after a 1.7% daily increase, although its four-hour position declined 0.4%. Gate carries $879.7M, or 17.1%, and posted the sharpest large-venue expansion at 8.1% over 24 hours and 2.0% over four hours. Bybit represents $679.4M, or 13.2%, and was nearly flat over the day at -0.1%. Bitget is smaller at $463.9M and 9.0% share, but its open interest rose 6.9%.
OKX contributes $344.1M, or 6.7%, with a 2.2% daily gain and a 0.5% four-hour gain. The contrast is important: Gate and Bitget are adding exposure quickly, while Binance and Bybit show less aggressive short-term expansion. This creates a fragile basis setup, because a few venues are adding leverage even as the overall futures curve remains below spot.
Funding is positive despite backwardation
Current funding is positive across the major centralized venues, but the levels differ. Binance is at 0.005%, OKX at 0.003%, Bybit at 0.007%, Bitget at 0.007%, and Gate at 0.004%. Coinbase is higher at 0.010%, while BitMEX is also elevated at 0.010%. This is not a uniform short squeeze signal: longs are paying on several venues even though the broader basis remains negative.
The mismatch suggests that the market is paying to maintain long exposure inside individual funding intervals, while larger futures pricing still reflects demand for downside protection or short-dated hedges. The ticker’s average funding rate is -0.020441% on an eight-hour basis, reinforcing the idea that venue-level conditions are not fully aligned. Traders should therefore distinguish between a positive local funding print and a genuinely repaired cross-market basis.
Liquidations expose the positioning fault line
Liquidation data adds a second warning. Over 24 hours, total SOL liquidations reached $11.4M, with $8.0M from shorts versus $3.4M from longs. The four-hour window was more balanced but still slightly short-heavy: $309.6K in shorts against $255.2K in longs. Over 12 hours, shorts accounted for $3.6M compared with $2.7M in long liquidations.
The largest recorded event was a $933.7K Binance short liquidation at $110.51, followed by a $927.4K short liquidation at $111.52. Yet an OKX long liquidation worth $439.1K occurred at $110.33, showing that both sides are vulnerable around the current price area. The account-versus-taker split is even more revealing: 72.1% of accounts are long, but taker flow is only 55.3% long. On Binance, accounts are 70.2% long while takers are 47.4% long; on OKX, the figures are 70.2% and 49.4%. This is a direct divergence between passive positioning and active execution.
Verdict: The dominant signal remains bearish-to-defensive backwardation, not a clean trend reversal. A sustained move above $111.70 would challenge the negative-basis view, but confirmation should require open interest to move below $5.14B rather than expand with more crowded accounts. The view is invalidated if SOL holds above $111.70 while open interest rises above $5.14B and the basis turns positive; that would indicate fresh demand is absorbing the hedge premium instead of merely forcing liquidations.
Data as of 02:05 Beijing time on Oct 10, covering Binance, OKX, Bybit and other major venues.